Steve Bainbridge echoes my feelings on Fred Thompson — that on paper, he’d make a darned good Republican president:

Here’s why I’m happy:

* The last President I really liked also was a former actor
* Lifetime 86 rating from the American Conservative Union - solid but not rigidly conservative.
* Lifetime 5 rating from Americans for Democratic Action, so he’ll really annoy the far left.
* Unlike say Hillary or Romney, he hasn’t been planning to run for President ever since s/he got elected President of the 9th Grade class and the senior football players ran his/her underwear up the flagpole, as illustrated by his famous comment that “After two years in Washington, I often long for the realism and sincerity of Hollywood.”
* “With iris traditional Southern values, his common-sense reform goals, and his folksy demeanor, “Ol’ Fred,” as the senator sometimes refers to himself, puts a populist face on a party struggling with an elitist image. Factor in Thompson’s media savvy, and you have the makings of a political icon. You have, in fact, the makings of another Ronald Reagan.” (Link)
* Unlike Romney or Edwards, he doesn’t look like a combination of a ken Doll and a local TV weatherman. “Americans are easily starstruck, and Thompson, frankly, looks the part of a president.” (link)
* He bugs James Dobson, who bugs me.
* There’s the Kung Fu case for him.
* He’s got a great voice, which will be perfect for things like the SOTU.
* He smokes cigars.

I think what the professor is saying is that Fred Thompson is both a real person and a real conservative, and considering that most politicians are neither, he’s a breath of fresh air. But over the past few months, I’ve grown more and more hesitant to make him our nominee, as I just don’t think he’s got the fire in the belly to win the general election. My evolution on the subject of FDT took place as I began to listen to the senator’s speeches, at which point I realized that Fred Thompson the politician is not, in fact, the dude from Days of Thunder or Law and Order. And absent that charm and larger than life personality, what’s left other than just another southern senator who will probably remind non-southerners of Bush, whose approval rating is currently under 30 percent? As such, I’m beginning to agree that Thompson may be another Wes Clark:

I don’t have time to write a long post on this, but I wanted to get this out there before someone else beat me to it: Fred Thompson is to the Republicans in ‘08 as Wes Clark was to the Democrats in ‘04. In other words, the highpoint of his campaign will be the day he gets in the race, because once he’s a serious candidate–and not just the fevered daydream of a dissatisfied base–voters will realize he’s not all that. Remember, you heard it here first. And if Thompson doesn’t flame out and actually goes on to win the GOP nomination and (gulp) the White House, well, forget I ever wrote this.

Now before you flame me, Thompson supporters, consider the analogy in its appropriate context. In 2004, Democrats were looking for a Scoop Jackson liberal — an unapologetic leftist who was also tough and convincing on foreign policy. On paper, Wes Clark fit the bill. Once he hit the stump, it became clear his political instincts were nonexistent, and he fizzled. But his CV kept him in the race long enough to ensure that a significant portion of the anti-Kerry vote was kept from John Edwards, ensuring that the frontrunner won the day. In 2008, Republicans are looking for a Reagan conservative — an unapologetic conservative who is also able to communicate conservatism to swing voters and win moderate and centrist votes. On paper, Thompson fits the bill. But if, as I suspect, he hits the stump without bringing along his on-camera persona, he will fail to energize anyone except for the “Rudy McRomney” types. Like Clark, he won’t be able to actually win any primaries. But also like Clark, he has the potential to help the frontrunner, in this case, Rudy, by ensuring that no single conservative alternative emerges to face him in the later primaries. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Rudy winning a series of 40% pluralities in the later primaries against Romney and Thompson, with the remaining 60% divided evenly between the latter candidates. In this scenario, Romney plays the Edwards role from 2004 and McCain, like Lieberman, never gets the McMentum going in Iowa and New Hampshire and is forced to drop out early.

Posted on May 31st, 2007 by David
Filed under: Ron Paul 2008