For those of you who need an Ames Straw Poll primer, may I humbly suggest this piece I penned last month as a great place to start.

All the debating, inter-campaign turmoil and decision making of whether or not to compete at Ames this August will come to a head on June 15, just a little over two weeks away. That’s when the bidding takes place for the real estate outside of the event center — you know, the piece of land that candidates have to set up tents, music stages, even carnival rides, and hand out campaign flyers/buttons/hats/DVD’s, etc.

In 2000, George Bush won the bidding and paid $63,000 for the real estate closest to the front door of the event - obviously the best location, if you’ve got the cash for it. My guess is the price for that piece of land will be above six digits this time around.

But what this means is folks like Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, whose campaigns have publicly been speculating about skipping the straw poll, will have to decide by June 15 if they want a spot there. And if they’re going to compete, they’re going to want a spot. When the bidding is over that day, candidates will have until June 25 to cut the check to the IA GOP, and the checks are nonrefundable. So two weeks from now, we will know who will be competing at Ames and who won’t be.

My hope is both Rudy and Fred choose to compete. My prediction, however, is that just Thompson will. Thompson will have lowered expectations going into the event since he has had far less time to prepare and get a ground organization going in Iowa, and lowered expectations are good things - because when they are beaten, it equals positive press time. Giuliani will take the safe road and not risk his candidacy on the social conservatives who show up at Ames - and I can’t really blame him for that. Out of any candidate, he has the most to gain and the most to lose from the straw poll, and by sitting it out he will be able to avoid those extremes.

So what are your predictions? Who’s in? Who’s out? Who will win the bidding for the chunk of land by the front door? And who ultimately will win Ames? We’re roughly 70 days away now…

Posted on May 31st, 2007 by David
Filed under: Ron Paul 2008