Not entirely sure why folks waste money polling New York, but here are the results:

Siena College New York GOP Primary
Without F Thompson and Gingrich
(trend lines from April)

Giuliani - 52% (47)
McCain - 14% (16)
Romney - 7% (8)
T Thompson - 4% (-)
All others - 2% or less
Undecided - 17% (16)

With Fred Thompson and Gingrich:
(no trend lines available)

Giuliani - 50%
McCain - 12%
F Thompson - 8%
Romney - 7%
Gingrich - 7%
Undecided - 15%

Survey was done May 18-25 of 174 registered Republican voters, and has an MoE of 7.4%.

As you can see, a tiny sample size with a huge MoE. However, it is interesting to note with that in mind that Thompson seems to draw his support equally from Rudy, McCain, undecideds, and third-tier candidates at this point, without moving Romney’s numbers.

Some general election matchups, showing New York assuredly blue at this point regardless of who either party nominates:

Siena College NY General Election Matchups

Clinton - 52%
Giuliani - 39%

Clinton - 54%
McCain - 36%

Clinton - 57%
F Thompson - 29%

Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 40%

Obama - 50%
McCain - 33%

This part of the survey was of 620 registered voters and has a 3.9% MoE.

For a reference point, Bush lost NY by 10% 25% in 2004 and 11% 18% in 2000.

[UPDATE: Woah, my numbers were off. I was accidentally looking at CA on my little chart of election history instead of NY. Yes, I have a chart of election history. And yes, I am a nerd. Thank you.]

Posted on May 31st, 2007 by David
Filed under: Ron Paul 2008