My political spider sense is going off.

The race for 2008, at least on the Republican side, is often described in terms of how little it can be analogized to the presidential races of recent history. But, as a student of history, and as one who is keenly aware of the frequent, eerie repetitions of history, I just cannot help but see several parallels between this year’s race for the Republican nod and another very recent such contest: the race for 2000. In fact, key developments in recent weeks have pretty much convinced me that we’re about to witness 2000 redux, with an establishment candidate pulling away from the pack for most of this year, only to face his toughest challenge from an insurgent who has yet to surface. Care to delve into the mind of DaveG to discover just how I think things will play out? Read on, gentle reader, read on.

The cast of characters that comprise the GOP presidential field of 2008 bear a striking resemblance to the motley crew from the millennial election. The current incarnations of the candidates from 2000, in my view, are as follows:

Rudy Giuliani as George W. Bush. Both ran as current or former executives. Both were tax cutters. Both sported a pragmatic domestic agenda on issues like education. Both touted a social policy that began and ended with judges — remember that Bush 2000 was pre-FMA and sent messages indicating that the country wasn’t ready to overturn Roe. Both were tough-talking fellows who were distinctly pro-order and pro-defense. Both saw their poll numbers take off during the year before the election (1999 for Bush; 2007 for Rudy), setting each up as the clear frontrunner and establishment candidate. The difference: Bush, a Texan, had as his base voters who also constituted the geographic base of the GOP; Rudy, as a New Yorker, does not.

John McCain as Elizabeth Dole. Like McCain, Liddy Dole was a star of the most recent presidential election’s GOP convention (Dole wowed ‘em in ‘96; McCain in ‘04). Conservatives liked Dole in ‘96, and liked McCain in the early days of ‘00. But over time, conservatives began to grow suspicious of both candidates. Both Dole 2000 and McCain 2008 started out as a co-frontrunner with the eventual GOP leader — Bush in 2000 and Rudy in 2008 — but both saw their numbers go south in the year before the election at around the same time that the eventual frontrunner in each election saw his numbers take off. Both are from red states, but not embraced by red staters.

Mitt Romney as Steve Forbes. Both are smart guys and able businessmen with interesting ideas, yet neither seems capable of consolidating enough support among actual voters to start winning primaries.

Sam Brownback as Gary Bauer. Each is in the race to remind the GOP that it’s the pro-life party. We need guys like them, just not on the ticket.

Tom Tancredo as Alan Keyes. Because somebody has to articulate what Michael Savage’s listeners are thinking. And they’re loads of fun during the debates!

Tommy Thompson as Orrin Hatch. Two guys with impressive CVs who get no respect from the voters.

Newt Gingrich as Jack Kemp. Will the old war horse run or won’t he? The answer turns out to be no.

Dark horse, red-state conservative as John McCain. Now this is where things get interesting. Over the last few days, my spider sense has been going off regarding the attempt to draft Fred Dalton Thompson into the race for 2008. I’ve finally realized why. The race for ‘08 is a carbon copy of the race for ‘00 with one exception: the field lacks an insurgent capable of giving the frontrunner a run for his money once the voters and the media begin to experience fatigue over the current crop of candidates. Remember, it was in July of 1999 that GWB announced his intention to seek the GOP nod, and in just 6 months, everyone was so bored with him, McCain was able to come out of nowhere and nearly knock the frontrunner down from his pedastal. If Rudy continues to lead the field by double-digits, McCain sinks to 10-15 percent, and Romney and the rest flatline, an opening will develop in the summer or fall of ‘07 for a dark-horse conservative to fill the void for a red-state candidate in the race.

That’s what makes all of this so interesting. In 2000, GWB was the frontrunner, the establishment candidate, and the red-state conservative candidate, and McCain, the insurgent, drew most of his support from the northeast, the Great Lakes states, and the west. Presently, Rudy is the frontrunner, and is quickly becoming the establishment candidate, yet the Mayor has his geographic base in the northeast and the west, not in Red America. In other words, in 2000, Bush led the red-staters and the GOP establishment to victory over the northern and western Republicans. In 2008, Mayor Giuliani will be leading a coalition of establishmentarians and northern and western Republicans, with red-staters going along for the ride unless an insurgent arises from south of the Ohio River to fill the McCain role from 2000. This begs the question of whether Bush’s win over McCain in 2000 was due more to his establishment creds or to his geographic base. If the former is true, Rudy should just as easily take down his red state challenger as Bush bested McCain in 2000. If the latter is true, Rudy could be in a real run for his money against the eventual red-state dark horse.

But will such an insurgent emerge? And, if so, who will it be?

A lot of it depends on whether any of these draft movements work. The current movement to draft Sen. Thompson could very well be successful, and the senator could fill the McCain 2000 role with Rudy in the Bush 2000 role. If Thompson decides not to run, a similar draft movement could convince Gov. Jeb Bush or Gov. Mark Sanford to enter the race. Both bring to the table the same creds as Thompson — a combination of credible conservatism and electability — and either could fill the red-state vacuum as the GOP field gradually becomes an army of one, with Rudy miles ahead of the rest of the pack. There is a certain irony in imagining someone like Rudy in the GWB role from 2000 and someone like Thompson in the McCain role, and such a development would put to the test the importance of being the establishment candidate in GOP primaries versus the importance of other factors.

Posted on March 21st, 2007 by David
Filed under: Uncategorized

My political spider sense is going off.

The race for 2008, at least on the Republican side, is often described in terms of how little it can be analogized to the presidential races of recent history. But, as a student of history, and as one who is keenly aware of the frequent, eerie repetitions of history, I just cannot help but see several parallels between this year’s race for the Republican nod and another very recent such contest: the race for 2000. In fact, key developments in recent weeks have pretty much convinced me that we’re about to witness 2000 redux, with an establishment candidate pulling away from the pack for most of this year, only to face his toughest challenge from an insurgent who has yet to surface. Care to delve into the mind of DaveG to discover just how I think things will play out? Read on, gentle reader, read on.

The cast of characters that comprise the GOP presidential field of 2008 bear a striking resemblance to the motley crew from the millennial election. The current incarnations of the candidates from 2000, in my view, are as follows:

Rudy Giuliani as George W. Bush. Both ran as current or former executives. Both were tax cutters. Both sported a pragmatic domestic agenda on issues like education. Both touted a social policy that began and ended with judges — remember that Bush 2000 was pre-FMA and sent messages indicating that the country wasn’t ready to overturn Roe. Both were tough-talking fellows who were distinctly pro-order and pro-defense. Both saw their poll numbers take off during the year before the election (1999 for Bush; 2007 for Rudy), setting each up as the clear frontrunner and establishment candidate. The difference: Bush, a Texan, had as his base voters who also constituted the geographic base of the GOP; Rudy, as a New Yorker, does not.

John McCain as Elizabeth Dole. Like McCain, Liddy Dole was a star of the most recent presidential election’s GOP convention (Dole wowed ‘em in ‘96; McCain in ‘04). Conservatives liked Dole in ‘96, and liked McCain in the early days of ‘00. But over time, conservatives began to grow suspicious of both candidates. Both Dole 2000 and McCain 2008 started out as a co-frontrunner with the eventual GOP leader — Bush in 2000 and Rudy in 2008 — but both saw their numbers go south in the year before the election at around the same time that the eventual frontrunner in each election saw his numbers take off. Both are from red states, but not embraced by red staters.

Mitt Romney as Steve Forbes. Both are smart guys and able businessmen with interesting ideas, yet neither seems capable of consolidating enough support among actual voters to start winning primaries.

Sam Brownback as Gary Bauer. Each is in the race to remind the GOP that it’s the pro-life party. We need guys like them, just not on the ticket.

Tom Tancredo as Alan Keyes. Because somebody has to articulate what Michael Savage’s listeners are thinking. And they’re loads of fun during the debates!

Tommy Thompson as Orrin Hatch. Two guys with impressive CVs who get no respect from the voters.

Newt Gingrich as Jack Kemp. Will the old war horse run or won’t he? The answer turns out to be no.

Dark horse, red-state conservative as John McCain. Now this is where things get interesting. Over the last few days, my spider sense has been going off regarding the attempt to draft Fred Dalton Thompson into the race for 2008. I’ve finally realized why. The race for ‘08 is a carbon copy of the race for ‘00 with one exception: the field lacks an insurgent capable of giving the frontrunner a run for his money once the voters and the media begin to experience fatigue over the current crop of candidates. Remember, it was in July of 1999 that GWB announced his intention to seek the GOP nod, and in just 6 months, everyone was so bored with him, McCain was able to come out of nowhere and nearly knock the frontrunner down from his pedastal. If Rudy continues to lead the field by double-digits, McCain sinks to 10-15 percent, and Romney and the rest flatline, an opening will develop in the summer or fall of ‘07 for a dark-horse conservative to fill the void for a red-state candidate in the race.

That’s what makes all of this so interesting. In 2000, GWB was the frontrunner, the establishment candidate, and the red-state conservative candidate, and McCain, the insurgent, drew most of his support from the northeast, the Great Lakes states, and the west. Presently, Rudy is the frontrunner, and is quickly becoming the establishment candidate, yet the Mayor has his geographic base in the northeast and the west, not in Red America. In other words, in 2000, Bush led the red-staters and the GOP establishment to victory over the northern and western Republicans. In 2008, Mayor Giuliani will be leading a coalition of establishmentarians and northern and western Republicans, with red-staters going along for the ride unless an insurgent arises from south of the Ohio River to fill the McCain role from 2000. This begs the question of whether Bush’s win over McCain in 2000 was due more to his establishment creds or to his geographic base. If the former is true, Rudy should just as easily take down his red state challenger as Bush bested McCain in 2000. If the latter is true, Rudy could be in a real run for his money against the eventual red-state dark horse.

But will such an insurgent emerge? And, if so, who will it be?

A lot of it depends on whether any of these draft movements work. The current movement to draft Sen. Thompson could very well be successful, and the senator could fill the McCain 2000 role with Rudy in the Bush 2000 role. If Thompson decides not to run, a similar draft movement could convince Gov. Jeb Bush or Gov. Mark Sanford to enter the race. Both bring to the table the same creds as Thompson — a combination of credible conservatism and electability — and either could fill the red-state vacuum as the GOP field gradually becomes an army of one, with Rudy miles ahead of the rest of the pack. There is a certain irony in imagining someone like Rudy in the GWB role from 2000 and someone like Thompson in the McCain role, and such a development would put to the test the importance of being the establishment candidate in GOP primaries versus the importance of other factors.

Posted on March 21st, 2007 by David
Filed under: Ron Paul 2008